Join us as Dr. Ed Seifried interprets the January 30th Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2019 4th quarter and annual (advance estimate) report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In addition, Dr. Ed will analyze the Fed’s January 28-29, 2020, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results.
At this time last year we were concerned that a very flat yield curve might invert (which it did for a few months of 2019) and precipitate an economic slowdown. Luckily, the yield curve inversion was mild and was not caused by rising short-term rates, which could have retrained final demand for goods and services. Rather, the inversion was caused by falling long-term rates, which in turn stimulated the housing market. Our worries this year are very different than last year.
The Fed raised rates three times in 2019, but because 2020 is an important election year, it seems unlikely they will be as active this year. Our attention will instead turn to the election and its impact on the economy. Plus, new trade deals with our neighbors and China will work their way through the economy, although it is not clear at this point what the impact will be from these recent deals.
Finally, we start the year in the 127th month of economic expansion, crushing the previous record of 120 months established decades ago. Can the economy continue this uninterrupted streak in growth? We’ll gaze into our crystal ball and try to determine our economic fate for 2020.
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